BI Deputy Governor Muliaman Dharmansyah Hadad said that the current global economy is in a state full of uncertainties. "Today, our banks are still quite resistant (resilient) of large shocks possibility of drawn-dissolution of the situation in Europe. BI request to management (banking) continues to closely monitor the possible impact of that will be faced," said Muliaman to recent Cash .
In anticipation of the possibility of a crisis, the central bank held regularly test the level of pressure (stress test) the condition of the financial sector, including banking. In the last financial stability report studies of BI, one of the main points of a source of instability of the financial sector is the flow in and out of foreign funds (capital flow).
"Capital inflows continue to increase as short-term improvement in our economic performance," explained Muliaman. This resulted in the financial system becomes increasingly vulnerable to reversal of fund flows simultaneously and suddenly (sudden reversal). Inversion occurs funds in liquid instruments, such as Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), State Bonds (SUN), and stocks.
Still healthy
Thankfully, the BI final results of the study noted, the banking industry generally has a foreign exchange rate risk is relatively low. Stress test results indicate the exchange rate risk, depreciation of the rupiah at Rp 5,000 instead has the potential to increase the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the banking industry amounted to 1.5 bps. This is because many banks are currently taking long position to maintain a net open position (NOP).
The results stress test on the ownership of banks also indicated SUN bank market risk associated SUN price low enough. This is because the exposure of banks against government securities trading portfolio is only 4.02 percent of total ownership of the bank SUN. As a result, banks are still able to overcome the risk of price declines to 25 percent SUN. If that happens, the CAR of banks fell by 10 bps. If the SUN price plunged more than 25 percent, will have his bank CAR below 8 percent.
In terms of liquidity, results of stress tests show, the ratio of noncore banking deposits until the end of the year 2009 was 114.6 percent rate, or above the minimum limit of 100 percent. This ratio is an indicator of banking liquidity to meet short term obligations. As the crisis in 2008, the bank liquidity ratio had reached a low point, 84.9 percent.
However, significant risks faced by banking-related interest rates. He said the banking CAR potentially down to 100 bps if there is a decrease the rate to 5 percent. "However, if interest rates go up 4 percent or more, there will be a CAR of his bank down to below 8 percent," he explained.
Vice President Director of Bank Jasa Jakarta Lisawati and Deputy Director of the State Savings Bank (BTN) Evi Firmansyah agreed, in the short term Europe is less affected by the crisis to Indonesia given the current average of 14-15 percent of national banking CAR. "The danger is that if a protracted because it will affect exports," said Evi.
Inhibition of export will affect the bank's revenue declined from the trade finance business (international business). When international business is weakening, the bank can only hope from the domestic sector.
Responding to the results of stress tests, BI, Evi said, declining interest rates would affect its revenue. Impact, the bank retained earnings decreased, while credit expansion continues to reduce the CAR. As a result, banks go down CAR
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